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“I think it’s a dicey congressional atmosphere (Trump) has thrown this grenade into,” the Canadian official said. The negotiations resume on Wednesday. There is nothing in the notification Trump sent to Congress that would prevent talks with Canada from continuing indefinitely. Trump’s thinking appears to be this: Trudeau will make concessions before the end of September because Congress, which is currently controlled by Republicans, would give Trump legal permission to proceed with a Mexico-only deal — and then would eventually vote to grant a Mexico-only deal final approval. But neither of those two things is even close to certain. Some trade experts say they are unlikely.

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Working in his grandmother’s basement, he fabricated underwear from a synthetic fiber. It was light and moisture-wicking, but the yarn was widely available, making the concept easy to imitate. Yet the initial lack of proprietary materials, technology or brand name somehow did not stop UnderArmour from growing . Competitors were slow to catch on to the idea, and Plank became the youngest entrant to the Forbes list of billionaires, growing the start-up into a multibillion-dollar behemoth. “Our research suggests that [strategic intelligence] can boost performance, even for traders in hypercompetitive markets or startups with little upfront advantage.” When you come to think about it, many household names — Home Depot, Walmart, McDonalds, Amazon — entered crowded markets without a clear advantage, yet somehow emerged on top. Likewise, many high-flying startups did not begin with an obvious monopoly position or inimitable resources (think Warby Parker or WeWork). Perhaps they accurately predicted that potential competitors would not respond because they were not paying attention or unable to react quickly. Such accurate predictions about competitors’ mindset are the mark of strategic intelligence. Explaining success (or failure) is easy in hindsight, but a good theory can make a prediction. If strategic intelligence can truly bring a competitive advantage, its precursors should be measurable, and its bearers should be identifiable long before they succeed. But companies and firms are complex, luck plays a role, and neatly delineating causes and effects is impossible.

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